Guessing the second half of the season

So halfway through the season and we're 4-2, which was my 'maybe' guess. I just guessed wrong on possibly losing to Ole Miss, and winning against Utah. Honestly though, who could have guessed we'd have 7 turnovers against Utah...?

Now that half of it's in the bag, I'm gonna try and guess the last half.

Oregon State - This is still a toss up. They could be turning the corner, or Arizona could be that bad. We notch another W.

5-2 (Maybe 4-3)

Idaho State - Win, no change.

6-2 (Maybe 5-3)

TCU - They've had our number for a LONG time. We're in Texas. This is no doubt a down year for Patterson, this is a toss up now. At the beginning of the year I had no hope for a win here. I unfortunately still vote loss though.

6-3 (Maybe 5-4)

Idaho - Win.

7-3 (Maybe 6-4)

New Mexico State - Win.

8-3 (Maybe 7-4)

Hawaii - Excellent QB so far this season, but, just lost to San Jose. I think this boils down to the turnover margin. Hawaii lost to San Jose because they couldn't capitalize on turnovers, and had so many turnovers themselves.... I think we get the W

8-4 (Maybe 7-5)

We'll go bowling in the Armed Forces Bowl against the #3 C-USA team in front of 32,000. I pick us to win the bowl game too.

9-4 (Maybe 8-5)

So the ''maybe' is the same. I think the two games that make or break this second half of the season are OSU and TCU. If we can get those two wins, we go 11-2 and get ranked.

Predictions 2011 W-L Record

Preseason NFL has already started, and the fall camps are underway all across college football. It's time for another prediction on the W-L record for BYU.

Ole Miss - This is one of the games I've had a real time guessing. We've got a few toss ups this year. They haven't really settled on a QB, and they were pretty badlast year. They are in the SEC though, so pretty bad there means they would have been decent in the MWC, WAC, etc. I've got us down for a win. If we lose though, it'll be the start of a mediocre year. If we win this one decisively we could be ranked afterwards.

1-0 (Maybe 0-1)

Texas - Another tough one to call, and another team that is real certain about who their QB will be. I may want to re-predict this one after I see the Rice - Texas game (their first game of the season), but I have us winning again. Being very hopeful here. If that Ole Miss is a loss, this one will be too. Even if the Ole Miss game is a win we could drop this one. If we win both we'll definitely be ranked.

2-0 (Maybe 0-2)

Utah - We had them beat last year. I didn't coin the phrase, but it applies, we snapped defeat from the jaws of victory. We're at home now, more experience, and we'll get a win here too. If we win all three to start we'll be moving on up the polls.

3-0 (Maybe 1-2)

UCF - Good non AQ school with a mobile QB. We usually have trouble with mobile QB's. We shut Locker down last year. We're at home again. Another win.

4-0 (Maybe 2-2)

Utah State - I dismissed this game last year. We had beaten them so bad for so long I couldn't even comprehend losing. It was a bad taste last year. We get revenge this year.

5-0 (Maybe 3-2)

San Jose State - Win.

6-0 (Maybe 4-2)

Oregon State - This is another toss up. They could be great this year, or mediocre like last year. We notch another W.

7-0 (Maybe 4-3)

Idaho State - Win.

8-0 (Maybe 5-3)

TCU - They've had our number for a LONG time. We're in Texas. Unless this is an awful down year for Patterson, this is a loss.

8-1 (Maybe 5-4)

Idaho - Win.

9-1 (Maybe 6-4)

New Mexico State - Win.

10-1 (Maybe 7-4)

Hawaii - Excellent QB returning for this team. I think this will come down to how good our touted secondary turns out to be. There's been a lot of talk about how this is the most athletic secondary Bronco has ever had. If they turn out to be good on game-day, this is a W. If it's the secondary I've gotten used to at BYU this will be really close and it will be decided by whether or not Hawaii's secondary shows up. If we're 10-1 by this time, which is the best case scenario in my mind, we win. If we're 7-4 by this time, which is the worst case scenario in my mind, we lose.

11-1 (Maybe 7-5)

Whether it's the amazing year I'm hoping for, 11-1, or the one I'm worried about, 7-5, we go bowling in the Armed Forces Bowl against the #3 C-USA team in front of 32,000. I pick us to win the bowl game too.

12-1 (Maybe 8-5)

If it is the 8-5 year, that's better than the 7-6 we had last year, but not what we need while we're an independent. If it's the 12-1 pipedream, we'll be looking awesome. If it's anything in between, I'll be pleased with the year.

The Streak Lengthens

Wow, two big wins in a row. Yes, they were against two non bowl eligible teams, but we dominated. No points in the first three quarters. Looked like we had some backups in on D for the fourth quarter and that's when they got there only 10 points.

Heaps looked good too. We're looking good, and we will next week too against New Mexico. We'll get bowl eligible and have some great momentum going up to Salt Lake for the Utes.

Speaking of the Utes, they have been dominated their last two games. With a road game at SD State, they could well be 8-3 when they face us like I mentioned a couple of posts ago.....

Bowl Picture

I know we haven't reached 6 wins yet, but I'm confident we will, and I wanted to take a look at the bowl picture. The MWC has 5 bowl tie-ins, Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Independence, Armed Forces, and New Mexico.

The only things standing between TCU and a BCS bowl are SD State, New Mexico, and Boise State jumping them in the polls. TCU is going to a BCS game.

Las Vegas can then make it's first pick, which I'm betting will be Utah. Utah is close, they'll sell it out, and it'll be against likely a Pac 10 team, the conference Utah will be in next year. Makes for a good match up.

SD State is eligible, and you can bet Poinsettia will take them. It's basically a home game. Another sell out (or close to it, that stadium is HUGE).

Air Force is eligible already, and we've only got three bowl tie-ins left, Independence, Armed Forces, and New Mexico. Armed Forces Bowl makes sense for Air Force, and they've been there the past two years.

I'm pretty certain about my first three bowl guesses, the Air Force one is a toss up, they could also go to the Independence. If they don't though, that leaves BYU with Independence or New Mexico. We'd sell out either one. It'd be nice to go to the Indepenence bowl, not just because it's funny, but because we'd play an ACC team. I love the WAC, but we'll see plenty of them the next two years. I'd also love us to go to the New Mexico Bowl because it's on my birthday, I've got the day off and I could go. Wither way, after our four game skid, it'll be great just to go bowling....

The Streak Continues

BYU is now 4-5 and I'm 6-3, significantly better than flipping a coin. We've got some momentum building too. We'll take it into CSU, get our first road win, then win against a flailing New Mexico, and head into Utah with a 4 game winning streak.

That UNLV game was a game I've been waiting to see since the Las Vegas Bowl. We looked like our old form. Yes, it was against a team with only one win this year, but still, we haven't looked that good against anybody this year. Let's hope the offense continues into the CSU game.

Speaking of CSU and like I mentioned above, we've got a great opportunity to win our first road game this year. CSU is another team that is down this year. They've got a freshman QB, but gave SD State everything they could in a close game. As far as I remember CSU has never liked us, and would be glad to beat us one last time. I think this one will look a lot like the Wyoming game, a nail biter all the way to the end. We win this one though and we'll be a shoe in to go bowling because we'll have New Mexico at home, and although they always play us close, we've got to win at home.

Our last game I had us winning in my guessing. After watching TCU dismantle Utah I have a little more hope that'll it'll be possible. Utah has two road games before finishing at home against us. It's not too hard to see Notre Dame with their bye week, and being at home, coming up with a win against the Utes. Then having to go on the road to SD State I could see the Aztecs hanging a loss on the Utes too. It could be 8-3 Utah against 6-5 BYU. Unlikely, I think they may split the games, win one but not both, and it's 9-2 Utah against BYU. We can win though. Our D was better against TCU than Utah's was.

I know it's hard to compare how one team fared against another, but I can see us ending 7-5, and then winning our bowl game and riding a six game streak into independence.

The Streak Begins

I know it's just one game, but we haven't had much to be happy about lately. We're now 3-5 on the year, and I'm 5-3 on guessing the games. I'm now slightly better than flipping a coin.

Although we got the win the stats that stand out to me are 81 yards on passing, and Jake Heaps 2nd touchdown on the year. Yup, BYU had a TOTAL of 81 yards passing, and their quarterback has TWO touchdowns for the WHOLE year. I don't want to complain too much, we won. I haven't felt that in awhile. But we need to do something about our passing game. It's non existant. I don't think Heaps came to BYU to hand the ball of 51 times.....

That being said our defense looks AWESOME. We do have 4 seniors ont he crew though, so I can't get too happy about it looking the same next year. And we were playng against the worst offense in the country. But still, you have to be happy about allowing negative yards in the first half for rushing, and negative overall yards. The only reason they were in this game was because of the two turnovers that led to 10 points. If it weren't for those it would have been 19-0 before they even got on the board, late in the third quarter.

Bye weeks are good and bad. Good because it lets the team rest, bad because I'll be bored this upcoming Saturday. We should be well prepared though the week after to meet UNLV in Provo and go up to 4-5 on the year, and then take that momentum into CSU and be an 5-5 to meet New Mexico at home and become bowl eligible. Like I said, the streak begins, we're about to roll of 4 games in a row for sure, and maybe even six if we can get through Utah and our bowl game.

Cougs are about to start rolling

More scheduling news from Provo. This one is kind of mixed news. I had heard rumors of our six game deal with Notre Dame being a 2 for 4, and it looks like it's been confirmed. We will go to visit the Fighting Irish in 2012, and then return in 2013. The next four games will be a 2 for 2. I wonder if the first two are really two one and dones, where we get paid, and then we have 2 more 1 for 1's. I'm sure we'll never know.

Musings aside, we get to go play in a great stadium. We're 1-3 when playing at the Irish, and only 1-1 when at home. Like I've said in previous posts, I'm glad we have some time before we have to go play them. We'll have some more seasoned veterans for both the away games.

Here's a look at the great stadium we'll go to in South Bend:


So our 2012 schedule is filling out. We've got 10 games scheduled, 6 away and 4 at home. 2011 also has 10 games scheduled, that one though has 6 home and only 4 away. I'm still very anxious about next year. Still no more news.

I'm also still a fan of getting two FCS teams to play us next year at home if no one else will. Of course only one win would count towards bowl eligibility, and it wouldn't look great, but the big schools do it all the time. Texas Tech, ASU, and Kansas State pop to mind right away.

Side note, 2013 is now up to 5 games scheduled (all GREAT teams, Texas, Georgia Tech, Boise State, Notre Dame and Hawaii).